A US government shutdown looms as a budget deal involving President-elect Trump and adviser Musk fails to pass Congress, potentially disrupting the economy if prolonged. Meanwhile, UK borrowing in November was lower than expected, hinting at better economic growth, while US personal income and consumption data indicate rising real incomes, supporting economic stability into 2025. As 2024 concludes, a final audio comment wishes listeners a prosperous new year.
A US government shutdown looms as a budget deal backed by President-elect adviser Musk and President-elect Trump fails to pass Congress, potentially disrupting the economy. Meanwhile, UK government borrowing in November was lower than expected, hinting at better economic growth. Strong US personal income and consumption data suggest a solid foundation for economic growth in 2025.
US inflation has decreased this year, influenced by the owners' equivalent rent, which does not reflect actual consumer spending power. The Fed, having been slow to cut rates, is expected to proceed cautiously next year, especially amid uncertainties from potential sales taxes under President-elect Trump. Meanwhile, the UK may also lower rates gradually due to deflation in input producer prices, while the ECB's consumer price inflation figures remain stable and largely unreactive.
UBS faces challenges in China due to Xi Jinping's policies promoting "universal prosperity," which discourage high executive salaries and wealth concentration. The sluggish economy, exacerbated by a real estate crisis, has led wealthy clients to shift assets abroad, complicating UBS's operations. The bank hopes for a gradual economic stimulus from the Chinese government to stabilize the market and boost private consumption.
Germany faces February elections after a government vote of confidence loss, while Canada’s Finance Minister Freeland resigns over disagreements on handling US economic nationalism. Despite mixed signals, the UK labor market shows growth, and US retail sales are set to rise, reflecting strong household consumption.
Germany faces February elections after a government vote of confidence loss, while Canada’s Finance Minister Freeland resigns over disagreements on handling US economic nationalism. Despite mixed signals, the UK labor market shows growth, and US retail sales are set to improve, reflecting strong household consumption.
China's November retail sales fell short of expectations, influenced by the timing of the singles shopping festival, leading consumers to shift spending towards government-supported areas. This trend mirrors Japan's 1990s spending voucher initiatives, highlighting the need for fiscal policy to address consumer concerns.In South Korea, President Yoon's impeachment moves to the Supreme Court, with a trial set for December 27, potentially reducing the risk of significant labor strikes. Meanwhile, assorted business sentiment polls are anticipated, though skepticism about their accuracy is advised due to the current climate of sensationalism and political polarization.
China's November retail sales fell short of expectations, influenced by the timing of the singles shopping festival, leading consumers to shift spending towards government-supported areas. This trend mirrors Japan's 1990s spending voucher initiatives, highlighting the need for fiscal policy to address consumer concerns.In South Korea, President Yoon's impeachment moves to the Supreme Court, with a trial set for December 27, potentially reducing the risk of significant labor strikes. Meanwhile, assorted business sentiment polls are anticipated, though skepticism about their accuracy is advised due to the current climate of sensationalism and political polarization.
On December 16, 2024, UBS Optimus Foundation celebrates its 25th anniversary, featuring insights from Tom Hall and Fabio Segura on the role of collaboration in philanthropy, particularly in education as a means to foster social equality and transformative change.Recent episodes of "The Bulletin with UBS" cover various topics, including the impact of Donald Trump's potential return on the US economy, the significance of investing in women, and the latest findings from the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index.
On December 16, 2024, UBS Optimus Foundation celebrates its 25th anniversary with insights from Tom Hall and Fabio Segura, emphasizing collaboration in philanthropy and the role of education in fostering social equality and transformational change. Recent episodes of "The Bulletin with UBS" cover various topics, including economic barriers for women, the implications of Trump’s election on the US economy, and the latest trends in global real estate markets.
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